Milton Ontario Real Estate, Opinion, & News

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Milton Ontario Real Estate Update November 20th, 2009

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Before I get into this week’s milton ontario real estate market activity report, here’s some information from the toronto real estate board (treb):

GTA REALTORS® Report Mid-Month Resale Housing Market Figures
TORONTO, November 18, 2009 – In the first two weeks of November, Greater Toronto
REALTORS® reported 3,666 sales – up 84 per cent compared to the first two weeks of
November 2008. The average price for these transactions was up 10 per cent year-overyear
to $415,066.
Increased interest in ownership housing has been widespread throughout the GTA and
across all housing types,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Tom Lebour.
“However, it is important to point out that we are now making comparisons to the fall of
2008 when we experienced a marked decline in sales and average price”
Year-to-date sales, at 78,233 are up 11 per cent compared to 2008. Average price, at
$393,180, is up by three per cent.
“Sales and average price in the GTA this winter will be well above levels reported
throughout the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009,” according to Jason
Mercer, TREB’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.
Summary Of November Sales And Average Price
November
2009 2008
Sales Average Price Sales Average Price
City of Toronto (“416″) 1,560 $441,893 830 $400,305
Rest of GTA (“905″) 2,106 $395,195 1,161 $358,130
GTA 3,666 $415,066 1,991 $375,712
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Greater Toronto REALTORS® are passionate about their work.
chris newell milton ontario real estate agent TREB News 1November 20 2009chris newell milton ontario real estate agent TREB News 2November 20 2009
I’m quite interested in the final paragraph of text above, as it would seem that Jason Mercer has a crystal ball that none of us plebes-in-the-trenches have. I’m not saying I disagree that the market will continue to be incredibly strong, but I think it risky to make such an empirical statement.
So, on to the Milton report . . .
Here’s the weekly Total Market Overview:
chris newell milton ontario real estate agent weekly total market overview november 20 2009
If you look at, for example, the price range of $0-$240,000, you will see that there is only one available property, yet there were 2 sales – obviously, one property came onto the market during the week, and sold right away or a couple of sales firmed up. Either way, with such a short supply of houses in the entry-level price range, now would be an incredible time to sell your home in that range.
Interesting to note is that the price range that was scalding hot for several months, $400,000 to $450,000, has seen a cooling off – not a lot of inventory but not much in the way of sales.
The graphical presentation of the Annual Summary:
chris newell milton ontario real estate agent weekly annual summary chart november 20 2009
And the tabular presentation of the information:
chris newell milton ontario real estate agent weekly annual summary november 20 2009
Looking at the year-over-year numbers, we have 100 listings now, compared to 561 12 months ago; we had 35 sales compared to 9 a year ago, and the average sale price is $100,000 over 12 months ago. That is largely reflective of the fact that many buyers who would have bought a $320,000 house a year ago are now buying houses in the $375,000 to $425,000 range.
Here’s the Market Absorption Rate:
chris newell milton ontario real estate agent weekly absorption rate tracking november 20 2009
And the Absorption Rate table:
chris newell milton ontario real estate agent weekly absorption rate table november 20 2009
Basically, what the table above shows is that if no new listings came on the market and sales continued at this week’s rate, there would be no houses left for sale in 3 weeks. Talk about a Seller’s Market!

Toronto Real Estate Market Is On FIRE!!!

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I received this information from a brokerage in Mississauga, and think it worthy of passing on to you . . .

Well, we beat the estimates again. Two weeks ago, I predicted 9,000 to 9,500 sales in July.

The market never slowed at all and in July 2009 we hit 9,951 sales reported to the Toronto Real Estate Board!!!!!

This next part is what is VERY important to pay attention to.

Right now the number of homes available for sale is at a critically low level. I’m going to repeat information from my previous message with some updated numbers. The number of sales this July jumped 27% over last year. The inventory has shrunk by 38% during the same time.

Currently the Absorption Rate (the percentage of inventory selling each month) is at an all time high. When the Absorption Rate (monthly # of sales/inventory) increases it causes prices to climb. When the number of sales increases, that’s good news. When the inventory can’t keep up with the number of sales, that’s BIG news.

Currently there are only 16,446 homes for sale. That means over 60% of the inventory is selling each month. History has shown us that an Absorption Rate of approx 30% to 35% give us a steady increase in prices. Anything above that causes prices to SHOOT up! Below I’ll show some examples over past years. If you look at it, you’ll see the pattern and identify that unless we get a huge influx of inventory (highly unlikely) prices are going to shoot up this fall. The big thing that could lower the number of sales is a failing economy. Well, according to the Bank of Canada, … the recession is OVER!

Month       # of Sales        Inventory          Absorption Rate

July/09       9,951                     16,446                   60%

July/08       7,806                    26,543                  29%

July/07       8,912                     20,694                  43%

July/04       7,329                    22,368                  33%

July/01        5,807                    19,484                   30%

July/98       5,026                    20,559                  24%

July/95       3,721                     27,610                   13%

Well, this just serves to support my contention all along that the Milton Ontario real estate market is HOT, & getting HOTTER! Don’t be left out in the cold; get into the market now, while the getting is relatively good.

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I recently did a calculation for some clients, and here’s the body of the email I sent them:

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Toronto Real Estate Soars to New Monthly Record!

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Yes, things are humming along just fine in the Toronto real estate market. As the article below reveals, this was the best June on record!

Here are a few highlights – for area-specific details, look through the report below:

In June 2009, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported a record 10,955sales, up 27 per cent from June 2008. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in June was 100,700. ”The record result in June is testament to the fundamentally sound housing market in the GTA,” said TREB President Tom Lebour. “An increasing number of households have been confident in purchasing a home in the region’s affordable and diverse resale housing market.”

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Spring Thaw Lures Home Buyers . . .

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After a frigid winter that saw existing home sales plunge dramatically, the Toronto-area housing market continues to experience a fragile spring thaw.

The Toronto Real Estate Board reported 8,107 sales yesterday for April, down 7 per cent from a year ago, but less than the 47 per cent free fall experienced in January.

“Conditions in the resale housing market have improved markedly this spring,” TREB president Maureen O’Neill said.

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