Milton Ontario Real Estate, Opinion, & News

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HST – Buckle up, it’s going to be a bumpy ride

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Building slump, rise in underground economy expected with arrival of tax, seminar told

TRACY HANES

TORONTO STAR

The introduction of the Harmonized Sales Tax could bring a whole new breed of housing products to the market, such as “white box” homes finished only as a shell for which buyers will hire separate contractors to do landscaping, interior finishing and the like.

And new home builders should expect a four-year slump in new home sales and the underground renovation economy to flourish due to the HST.

Those were the hard realities presented last week at a panel discussion arranged by the Ontario Home Builders’ Association (OHBA) for its members.

“Your greatest challenge isn’t long term, it’s the next four years, if you are still alive,” Paul Pettipas, chief executive officer of the Nova Scotia Home Builders Association said. The HST has been in effect in Nova Scotia since 1997. “You have fertile ground for an underground economy. A lot of skilled people are going to be out of work (former auto workers) and there’s going to be a whole new breed of handy people.”

The tax, which will blend the goods and services tax (GST) and the provincial sales tax (PST), comes into effect July 1, 2010 and will be charged on new home and condo sales and on renovation work.

A new home priced under $400,000 will receive a rebate of 75 per cent of the provincial portion of the tax, meaning that consumers will effectively pay a 2 per cent tax, about they same they pay currently.

The rebate is scaled back on homes priced at more than $400,000, however; for a $500,000 new home, a consumer will be paying the full 8 per cent, or $32,000 more in tax than the buyer of a $400,000 home.

About half the single family and semi detached homes sold in Ontario are priced more than $400,000.

Panelist Harry Herskowitz, real estate lawyer and Tarion chairman, speculated that the transition rules, yet to be announced, will likely exempt any agreements of sales entered into prior to July 1, 2010.

He offered several ideas on how builders could minimize the tax bite and “there will be an incentive for builders to keep below the $400,000 threshold.”

Such measures may include reducing the overall size of new homes or condos; simplifying, downgrading or eliminating costly architectural or design features, such as exterior landscaping.

Herskowitz said builders might also lower the price point by reducing or eliminating green features which are more costly than Ontario Building Code standards, even though that thwarts the province’s Green Energy Act and “is a collective detriment to everybody.” Or they could eliminate all extras and possibly sell the home as a “shell” or “white box” with the finishing work to be done by a separate, third party contractor.

This “white box” approach raises several issues, said Herskowitz: the finishing work may not be covered by Tarion; and builders must be careful that the finishing work be done by separate contract with a different date than the closing, ideally by an arm’s length third party supplier, so it’s not seen as a builder’s tactic to avoid paying a higher HST rate.

Or he said, perhaps some developers/builders will sell lots separately and the home building will be done in a separate contract.

The government is treating houses like luxuries,” observed Herskowitz. “In the City of Toronto, there will be $80,000 in taxes (including land transfer tax, HST, etc.) on the typical half million dollar house, which most of the time is owned by people with a $150,000 household income. It’s not a luxury, it’s a necessity. More and more buyers will be opting for resale so they don’t have to pay HST.”

“This has the potential to change the way we do everything,” noted moderator Brian Johnston.

“And the huge issue is the impact on renovators and incentifying the black market economy.”

“I can tell you in no uncertain terms consumers are going to pay more,” said Pettipas. “The people that will hurt the most are the renovators as they will have to make the decision whether to join the cash economy and go underground. Consumers don’t consider cash deals as wrong.”

With the HST, the 8 per cent tax will be added to labour costs, pushing renovation costs higher. Pettipas says in his province, about one-third of the reno work is done under the table, with homeowners doing one-third themselves and professionals doing the rest.

He told builders to brace for a bumpy transition.

“Yours is the worst of the worst with the ($400,000) threshold and the government will try to make it seem palatable up front, but it won’t last,” said Pettipas.

“Batten down the hatches, have some money salted away for the next few years, you’re going to need it. You’ve got to get through the next four years. After that, it will be irrelevant.”

What’s frustrating, said Johnston, president of the Monarch Corp. is that no plan has been announced for how the tax will be phased in.

“We thought we’d have a solution by now, we thought we’d have an answer to the transition; we don’t,” said Frank Giannone, president of the OHBA.

Giannone said the OHBA has been lobbying the provincial government for two changes for implementation: one, that buildings under construction before the HST comes into effect be exempt; and secondly, that the 2 per cent rate applies to the first $400,000 of any new home sale, even if the price is higher, then the cost beyond that be taxed at 8 per cent.

Toronto Star

Mortgage rates to remain stable: CMHC

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Mortgage rates are expected to remain within 25 to 75 basis points of their current level for the remainder of 2009, according to CMHC’s second quarter Housing Market Outlook, keeping them “very low in a historical context.”

“Movements in mortgage rates are difficult to predict due to volatile economic conditions,” the report stated.

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“Nevertheless, rates are expected to remain steady this year and edge higher in 2010.”

Along with mortgage rates, CMHC listed employment, net migration and low birth rate as having key effects on residential construction, and forecast housing starts to decline to 141,900 in 2009 (most notably in Alberta and Saskatchewan) before rebounding to 150,300 in 2010.

Read the full story here

Sour economy spurs sweet success

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Intensification, rent control changes and shortage of stock give rise to new projects

It’s hard to imagine a more challenging time for business and markets than the past half year.

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With consumers running for cover and the international banking system imploding, what were developers and builders to do?

If you were Brian McCauley, executive vice-president of Vancouver-based Concert Properties, you were negotiating a deal with Diamante Development Corp. worth close to $20 million to acquire a condo site with approvals in place at Bay and Dundas Sts. His company will build the 26-storey, 448-unit project as a high-end rental.

“From a global perspective, Toronto is still a very strong marketplace in spite of the current softening that we’ve all experienced across Canada,” McCauley comments.

It also must be encouraging that Toronto’s apartment vacancy rate is at a seven-year low of 2 per cent, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. data, while vacancy rates for the subcategory of rented condos, representing newer apartment stock with substantially higher rents, is a microscopic 0.4 per cent, with rents almost 50 per cent higher than those in aging rental buildings.

Read the full story here

Your Dollar’s Buying Power – Milton Real Estate Market Update

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Here’s the latest update from the Milton real estate market. As you can see in the first chart, the Total Market Annual Summary, the inventory of available homes is slowly tracking downwards. We now have a similar amount of inventory to what was available before the new construction started back in 2001, yet we have 4 times the number of houses. Sales activity is remaining fairly constant, and as the days on market reveals, things are selling quite quickly. 

Here’s the annual update, showing overall activity:

annual-summary-05-29-09

And here’s the Weekly Price Range Summary

tmo-05-29-09

 

As the Weekly Summary by Price Range (above) reveals, activity is spread across the lower ranges. An interesting note is that, with today’s mortgage rates, money has a much stronger buying power, and I think that is partly why the sales over $375,000 are fairly good.

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For example, at 3.6%, the monthly payment on a $100,000 mortgage is approximately $505; if rates were 5.5%, that same payment would only get you $81,000 of mortgage. Double those numbers and your $1010 will now get you into a $200,000 mortgage vs a $162,000 mortgage. More realistically, multiply those numbers by 3.5 and your $1,768 will get you a $368,000 mortgage at 3.6% vs a $284,000 mortgage at 5.5%. THIS IS HUGE!!! This difference alone moves you from the mid-range semi-detached homes and the upper-end row houses (townhouses) into the lower-mid-range detached homes. For the same monthly payment. Sure, your taxes will be a touch higher, and the downpayment required a little bit more, but not by a significant amount. 

And here’s the graphical listings and sales information (listings in green; sales in red):

listings-sales-annual-summary-05-29-09

Milton Real Estate Market Overview 05-22-2009

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Another fascinating week of activity in town, with the number of sales being down 33% over the previous week, and the number of available properties staying relatively consistent. I’ve included a graph to give a clearer visual presentation of the trend over the past 8 months, and it is quite interesting.

I have to repeat what I’ve been saying every week – multiple offers abound. I was involved in 2 more this week. Also, as agents are catching up to the changing market, some of the benefits to buyers

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are already disappearing. For a couple of months, it was easy to get an offer accepted conditional upon the sale of the buyer’s property; now it is virtually impossible. Why, you might ask? Because if the house is priced properly and shows well, it seems increasingly likely that there will be multiple offers, so there won’t be a need to accept a conditional-on-sale offer.

What this means for sellers is that NOW is a good time to sell! What this means for buyers is that the window is rapidly slamming shut! The perfect storm I’ve been talking about is rapidly dissipating. Sure, it may come back, but it may not come back for 5, 10, 15 years. I have to speak straight from the heart, and ask when people are going to get off the fence and take action? We’ve seen prices inching up; the supply is down, and still people are trying to time the market. Guess what folks – you missed the bottom of the market. Don’t keep trying to do the impossible; just get into the market now!

Call me today at 905-208-7002, and we’ll get you moving along the path to owning a home, or an investment property, while the options are still out there.

Here’s the updated Annual Summary:

 

Milton Real Estate Activity Summary 05-22-09

Milton Real Estate Activity Summary 05-22-09

 

And here’s the weekly overview:

 

 

Milton Real Estate Weekly Summary

Milton Real Estate Weekly Summary

 

And here’s the weekly summary graph of listings (green) and sales (red):

 

listings-sales-annual-summary-05-22-09

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