The milton ontario real estate market came roaring back to life this past week! As noted in last week’s update, the sudden one-week dip in activity can most easily be attributed to the sudden arrival of Summer, and people’s determination to get some of the sunshine!
I don’t think I have ever mentioned that the information that is presented in these reports is not something that the Oakville-Milton Real Estate Board provides to us as Realtors; I compile it by keying data from the MLS into a number of Excel sheets I have created for this purpose. No other real estate agent in milton ontario has this in-depth market analysis available. There are a couple of agents I know of who use the information provided by the Toronto Real Estate Board, however, that information is not completely accurate, as not all data is shared between the 2 real estate boards, so the TREB reports are compiled from incomplete data.
As I reviewed the MLS activity to create these reports, what particularly caught my eye is how the sales activity is really concentrated in the under-$400,000 range. To me, this indicates a number of factors:
- The Milton Ontario real estate market is still being driven primarily by first-time buyers. In fact, 55% of the sales occurred in the under-$350,000 range. That indicates to me that the buyers are being cautious, in spite of the low interest rates.
- Home buyers are not completely confident about their job security and the economy in general. I think that if the confidence level were higher, then the price range of sales activity would be more evenly distributed across the board.
- Interest rates are still playing a role in things, although maybe not as big of a role as I would have thought. As an example, comparing a home purchase of $350,000 this year compared to 12 months ago, there is a difference of approximately 1.3% in interest rates as posted by the major banks. On a $300,000 mortgage, that translates into a payment this year of $1,893 versus a 12-months-ago payment of $2,130. The difference of $237 (calculated by subtracting $1,893 from $2,130) would, at this years rates, allow a mortgage of approximately $338,000. Raising the purchase price of a house that much can have a significant impact on the size and type of house one can buy, so if buyer’s are electing not to increase their purchase price, it seems only logical that the reason is the general economic uncertainty that lingers in the air.
- A thought that contradicts the thought outlined in #3 above is the shortage of available properties in some price ranges, which in turn leads milton ontario home buyers to buy something less than they might ideally want so that they can at least get into the market while the fantastic opportunities are still out there.
Let’s move on to the tables and graphs . . .
This is the Weekly Total Market Overview:

You’ll notice that the average days to sell, at 35, is somewhat longer than it has been trending; this is caused by a few anomalies of houses taking more than 50 days to sell and when those numbers are removed, the average days to sell a house in milton ontario is actually 9 days. This relates to an àvailable for viewing`time of approximately 2 days.
Next is the annual summary of the weekly data:

And the graphical representation of that data:
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The Absorption Rate, explained here:

And the graphical representation of the Absorption Rate:
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Finally, the weekly listings and sales graph:

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In summary, the Milton Ontario real estate market is strong for home sellers, frustrating for home buyers, and not showing any signs of changing anywhere in the GTA. A ray of sunshine and a possible cloud combined is that, as I am fond of saying, the real estate market can, and has, turned 180 degrees over the course of a couple of days. It should be clear to readers by now that there is no timing the market, so if a move is in your near-future, there`s probably not a better time to make it than right now, because you know what the market is doing, right now, at 5:57 a.m. on Friday, August 21st, 2009.
Give me a call, 905-208-7002, or fire me an email to Chris@ChrisNewell.com if you`d like in-depth analysis of your home`s position in this market.