The original posting of this story by Report On Business spurred me to add my commentary, is italics throughout.

Over-exuberant Christmas shoppers only have months to get control of their overspending before higher interest rates risk further complicating their lives, credit counselling experts warn.

With Canadians swimming in debt, forecasts of higher interest rates midway through 2010 could push more people over the edge by hampering their ability to pay off expenses.

“It’s a huge concern,” says Laurie Campbell, executive director of the non-profit counselling service Credit Canada.

Those most at risk are homeowners who must renegotiate their mortgages. Higher rates would increase monthly payments, leaving less to pay other debt.

I don’t read mainstream media consistently, because of the melodramatic way they report things. In Mississauga, with the average house value being in the $360,000 range and a 20% equity, people would have an 80% mortgage, or a mortgage of $288,000. If rates rise 1% all in one fell swoop, the payment would go up by $155 a month. While that is no small chunk of change, it is an easily-manageable amount. That’s less than the cost of buying lunch every working day; it’s less than many spend at Tim Horton’s in a month; and it’s far less than the average person spends unnecessarily on discretionary stuff. Oh, sorry, my readers, I forgot, logic doesn’t trump lousy reporting and scare tactics in the media. My bad.

Spending by Canadian households averaged $71,360 last year, 2 per cent more than in 2007, with shelter representing about 20 per cent of the load.

The Bank of Canada has repeatedly warned of late that record household debt is the biggest risk facing the country’s financial system. Bank Governor Mark Carney said that up to 10 per cent of households could face difficulties in meeting monthly payments when interest rates rise to normal levels.

However, an estimated 40 per cent of mortgage holders with high debt payments could increase their flexibility by suspending accelerated pay-downs on principal.

Um, yeah, okay, I guess the writer has never tried to do that! It’s one thing to increase your principal payments – they love to let you do that. But, in a completely absurd twist of logic, they make you re-apply for a mortgage if you want to lessen the principal payments. Yeah, makes sense to me – when you take away the banks interest income, by paying your mortgage off faster, they greet you with open arms; give them the opportunity to make more interest income and they make you jump through so many hoops. Once again, my bad for thinking logic has any part of all this. No wonder it’s easier to buy a $75,000 car that you could drive to LA & sell for $45,000 than it is to buy a house that ain’t goin’ anywhere!

Of course, presuming you used a great mortgage broker to get your mortgage, and he/she advised you not to write the loan at the higher principal payments, you’ll be fine with this and can just stop making the extra principal payment.

High interest rates have a major effect on a person’s cash flow, said Paul Salewski of Ottawa-based financial, credit and debt counselling agency Doyle Salewski. A doubling of mortgage rates to eight per cent would, for example, increase monthly payments by nearly $500 for homeowners with a $200,000 mortgage.

Please, don’t be so insulting! Talk about fear-mongering!! First of all, does a single breathing person actually believe that they’ll double rates overnight? Does anyone believe that there won’t be massive media attention paid in advance? Your great mortgage broker will be completely on top of things and advising you when to move your mortgage from a Variable Rate to Closed Rate. I’m equally sure that they will have had a chat with you when arranging your mortgage about what the payments would be at higher rates.

“All of a sudden they’re maybe have to increase their payments or who knows what they have to do in order to get by,” he said.

Since it’s too late to avoid the commercialization of Christmas, credit counsellors suggest people look at strategies for dealing with their spending spree as soon as the holidays wind up.

Recommendations include tackling high-interest credit card debt first — obtain a line of credit or consolidation loan if possible, stick to a spending budget and try to amass an emergency fund.

Yeah, that’s the ticket – arrange a line of credit, which usually means it’s going to be tied to prime, and increase your exposure. No, the answer is to start right now on eliminating all that discretionary spending.

Whatever you do, don’t rack up more credit card charges as you develop a plan of action to tackle debt.

Ms. Campbell said there’s no need to have more than one or two charge cards. Paring the number of cards over time will also limit the ability to make foolish decisions.

Despite increased restrictions, she expects that more Canadians will turn to bankruptcy to address their financial problems in 2010. Among them will be high-income earners who have begun to seek credit counselling in greater numbers.

“I think it’s really important for people to understand not to panic,” Ms. Campbell said, adding that help from counsellors is available.

Mark says a huge weight has been lifted off his shoulders since he sought such help to address $10,000 of debt he had amassed following his divorce several years ago.

“I just didn’t know how to quite handle my new freedom,” he said in an interview.

His credit woes caused him mental anxiety, depression and loss of sleep.

The 56-year-old caretaker said his problems worsened when he turned to pay-day loans to accommodate his increased spending on cigarettes, alcohol and general living expenses.

Every two weeks he would pay $25 interest for each $100 borrowed at a store-front operation in Toronto.

“You get to a point where you have to borrow again to get yourself back to where you were,” said Mark, who didn’t want to be identified.

Consolidation of his debt and regular monthly payments should allow him to resolve his financial problems and re-establish his credit within two years.

“As long as I keep a handle on it, it’s OK.”

Sorry, I know that more and more people are facing financial difficulty these days, and a lot of it is brought on by their emotional approach to things. When I was active as a mortgage lender, I was amazed at how many people would have $100,000 in high-interest debt, and $200,000 in equity in their house. They wouldn’t dream of re-financing their house at 7% to pay off their 20% debt, because of the emotional attachment to owning their house free-&-clear. That’s plain crazy!

IF you have a VRM, you need to start now paying attention to all the talk about where interest rates are going. You need to hook up with a mortgage broker, NOT talk to your bank about things, and you need to consider locking in your mortgage NOW.

Sure, I’m pretty conservative when it comes to this, and haven’t taken the ride on the VRM-train.

If you need contact info for a great mortgage broker, just ask.

Smith Manoeuvre

• Is it time to lock in your mortgage?
• Confidence in housing market a ‘good sign’: economist
• U.S. house construction rises in May

This Week’s Quotation:

“The only limit to our realization of tomorrow will be our doubts of today.” – Franklin D. Roosevelt (1882 – 1945)

This Week’s Highlights:

• Housing starts perk up
• It was the worst of times
• Is the end in sight?

WEEKLY ARTICLES OF INTEREST

Is it time to lock in your mortgage?

One mortgage broker seems to think so. Here’s why

Jas Grewal’s reaction to the recent runup in interest rates was to abandon a sweetheart of a variable-rate mortgage in favour of a safer, but more expensive, fixed-rate mortgage. Mr. Grewal, you should know, is a mortgage broker. A mortgage broker who sees the potential for much higher rates in the future. “read more….”

OTTAWA — Despite a stream of negative economic news, most Canadians who’ve recently bought a home have confidence in their decision, according to a survey by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. A national consumer survey released Tuesday said 90% of recent home purchasers believed that a house is a good long-term investment. Almost 70% of respondents also said they felt that this is a good time to buy a home.“read more….”

Construction of new homes in the United States jumped in May by the largest amount in three months, providing an encouraging sign that the nation’s deep housing recession was beginning to bottom out. The Commerce Department said Tuesday that construction of new homes and apartments jumped 17.2 per cent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 532,000 units. That was better than the 500,000-unit pace that economists had expected and came after construction had fallen in April to a record low of 454,000 units. “read more….”

“THIS WEEK’S HIGHLIGHTS”

Housing starts perk up

Housing starts showed welcome signs of improvement in May, rising to 128,400 annualized from April’s 117,600. The increase was broadly based across building types. Both urban singles starts and urban multiples starts rose 11.1% to 60.900 annualized and 46,900, respectively. Rural starts remained unchanged at 20,600 annualized units. The improvement was reasonably broad-based, with all regions posting gains except British Colombia. Ontario enjoyed the largest percentage gain, up 22%, with gains in the Prairies posting a 16.8% increase. Quebec and Atlantic Canada enjoyed more muted gains of 3.3% and 7.3%, respectively. British Columbia suffered a 5% decline in urban starts during May. The pick-up in starts is broadly in line with the forecast of an improvement during the latter half of the year compared to the weakness in the first half. It is expected that Canadian housing starts will average 141,000 in 2009 overall. As growth in the economy picks up in 2010, starts should improve modestly to 173,000, although this represents activity well below levels seen earlier this decade.

It was the worst of times

To be sure, the data reported for the first quarter of 2009 was dismal. Canada’s recorded its largest output loss since 1991, the U.S. economy registered its third consecutive quarterly decline with activity in the European and U.K. economies also shrinking substantially. To top it off, Japan’s economy shrank at a 15.2% annualized rate. In spite of the rash of bad news, investors gravitated toward the better news being reported. U.S. housing statistics showed stability in the pace of sales, the pace of job cuts moderated and consumer confidence picked up. In Canada, confidence rose as did the pace of home sales making the first quarter’s slump feel like old news. U.K. house prices have increased in two of the past three months, auto incentives appear to have put a bottom on sales and confidence has improved. Eurozone data proved a mixed bag with the unemployment rate hitting a 10-year high, but business confidence improving and order books growing. Investors took these reports as a signal that it is the beginning of the end for the Great Recession of 2009.

Is the end in sight?

The consensus is that the global recession began to lose momentum in the second quarter but still expect another round of negative growth rates to be reported. The global manufacturing ISM index recorded its fourth consecutive monthly increase in May and the services index averaged 45.3 in April/May, well above the first quarter’s 40.4. The levels remain unimpressive but signal a turnaround in sentiment, suggesting that the pace of contraction will be slower in the second quarter and that, if this trend persists, the global economy will likely be expanding in the second half of this year.

When it comes to language like credit ratings, mortgage terms and amortization, we can get a little hazy on the details . . .

It’s probably both your biggest liability and your greatest asset, but how much do you really know about your mortgage and whether you’re making the best decisions possible about it?

According to a survey by Genworth Financial Canada, most of us could use a little more education around mortgages and the home-buying process.

It conducted a national online survey with 1,500 first-time homebuyers last fall and found only 25 per cent could correctly answer more than seven out of 10 questions in a mortgage quiz – and only 1 per cent got them all correct.

When it comes to language like credit ratings, mortgage terms, variable or fixed interested rates, amortization, default insurance and debt-service ratio, we get a little hazy on the details.

Part of it could be complacency brought on by contentment. A survey by the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP) last year found 84 per cent of Canadians are “satisfied” with the terms of their mortgages, with 26 per cent saying they are “highly satisfied.”

Just 12 per cent are neutral and 5 per cent are dissatisfied to some degree, the survey found.

The high scores are partly driven by the fact we’re enjoying the lowest interest rates in decades. The same survey taken in the 1980s when mortgage rates hit 18 per cent probably wouldn’t elicit such high levels of satisfaction.

Read the full story here

Mortgage rates are expected to remain within 25 to 75 basis points of their current level for the remainder of 2009, according to CMHC’s second quarter Housing Market Outlook, keeping them “very low in a historical context.”

“Movements in mortgage rates are difficult to predict due to volatile economic conditions,” the report stated.

“Nevertheless, rates are expected to remain steady this year and edge higher in 2010.”

Along with mortgage rates, CMHC listed employment, net migration and low birth rate as having key effects on residential construction, and forecast housing starts to decline to 141,900 in 2009 (most notably in Alberta and Saskatchewan) before rebounding to 150,300 in 2010.

Read the full story here