This is one smokinnnnnnnnnn real estate market!!!

Have a look at the numbers in the table below and you`ll see what I mean. The listings are coming on the market in great numbers, selling in great numbers, and we remain firmly entrenched in one of the strongest SELLER MARKETS in history!

The strongest segment of the market is below $375,000, an indication that sales are being driven by first-time buyers, and maybe a small does of move-up buyers getting out of condo`s while rates are low and conditions are improving in the economy.

Multiple offers are still the norm, underpricing is still the norm, and shortage of good inventory is still a problem. Time to sell – Call me 905-208-7002

ps – The weekly reports will be returning in the previous format shortly; our new service provider couldn`t work some issues out with the MLS, so it`s back to me doing the weekly overviews.

I have created a new format for the information, as there is an expanded amount of information available to me now. Through the MLS, we are now able to track the number of new listings that came on the market in a given time period, which we weren’t able to do in the past.

What this has allowed me to do is to show you how the market is trending in a much more complete picture, as you will see in the table below.

This time, I am only going to provide you with one table, as the new format will mean that all new graphs will need to be created, so that will begin with the next issue of the update.

You will note that there is a new column in the chart – ‘New Listings During Period‘ – this is the piece of information that was missing, and the one that completes the picture to a truly accurate overview of how the market is going. I have also re-named some columns, for ease of understanding.

My comments appear below the chart.

As you can see from the chart, the ‘Sold Ratio‘ is determined by adding the columns for ‘Active Listings’ & ‘New Listings During Period’, thus allowing the Sold Ratio to be drawn from all properties that Buyer’s had available to them during this period. Overall, this shows that, if your house was on the market during this time period, you had a 41.2% chance of it selling. That is pretty darned good!

In fact, according to the experts, any time you have more than a 15% chance of your house selling in any given month, we are in a Seller’s Market!

You can see that there was a good amount of activity across the price ranges, however, I feel it is my duty to advise that the properties that are selling for more than the list price are not a reflection of a market gone crazy, but they are a reflection of the poor marketing tactics used by some agents. A house selling over list price does not mean that there were multiple offers, nor does it mean that the sellers got the best price for their house. In fact, some companies are currently creating an atmosphere that prevents multiple offers, not only by their pricing strategies but also by their ineffectiveness at making a property available for showings, guiding their sellers in negotiations, etc. Professional courtesy (on my part) precludes me from saying more here, however you can ask many local agents and they will explain what I am talking about.

This will be an interesting market for the next few months, for sure, as people try to get their purchases closed before the HST comes into effect. Don’t miss the boat – if you are planning on selling, give me a call today at 905-878-4444.

January 2010

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Commentary

All around signs appear to be brighter than they were this time last year – banks are profitable, confidence is up, employment is on the upswing lately, and the housing market is moving. Ottowa’s Centre for the Study of Living Standards reports shows that consumption has grown in “leaps and bounds” from $30,000* per person in 1981 to $50,000* in 2008 adjusted. That’s per person, with the average Canadian family being 2.37 people. That brings consumption per family to $118,500 for the average family.

The upcoming Olympics are expected to provide a beneficial influx of money for Canada and for Vancouver. The small business sector in British Columbia has the most optimistic outlook of all provinces in the country, most likely due to the games. The dramatic 253% increase in home sales in the Greater Vancouver area could also be partly fueled by the Olympics.

The country appears to have traveled quite a distance over the past year – from the verge of the next depression last year to what appears to be an economy that’s found its way to firmer footing.  One example is that most consumers planned on spending more this year on gifts for the holidays this year than last year.

With some concerns that the housing market has rebounded too much, too fast; it is important to keep in mind is that year-over-year increases are compared to an unusually weak year.

* Adjusted for inflation to 2009 dollars and includes government spending

Housing Market

Home Sales

Sales activity remained upbeat in November. National resale housing activity had a record-breaking month with 46,450 units trading hands. This stands in sharp contrast to weak activity seen one year ago and is 76 percent above the decade low reached in January. Low interest rates, coupled with upbeat consumer confidence, continue to bolster national sales activity.

Average Home Price

The national average home price reached new heights in November, rising 19 percent to $337,231 from the same month last year. This year-over-year increase continues to underscore the sharp rebound in Canada’s priciest markets

Inventory

Sales-to-Listings Ratio

Strong rebounds in home sales activity and average price gains are beginning to draw more sellers back to the market. New listings fell 8 percent from November 2008 but rose 5 percent on a month-over-month basis to 69,110 units. Even with the uptick in new listings, the strong increase in housing demand continues to draw down inventories. Nationally, there were four months of inventory in November, the lowest level in more than two years. The sales-to-listings ratio was 67 percent, signaling a strong seller’s market.

Mortgage Rates

Average for: 25-Year Amortization, 5-Year Term

In November, the 5-year conventional mortgage rate edged down to 5.49 percent, 1.26 percent lower than this time last year. As the Bank of Canada reiterates its commitment to hold its benchmark overnight lending rate steady at 0.25 percent until the end of the second quarter of 2010 and with the overall risk to the inflation outlook tilted slightly to the downside, it suggests that the Bank could leave rates unchanged even longer than expected.

Sources: Conference Board, The Canadian Real Estate Association, Royal Bank of Canada, Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Bank of Canada

Notable News

Bank of Canada

In its most recent meeting, the Bank of Canada said that the recovery is becoming more firmly rooted and that it expects its growth forecasts to happen as pictured. The Bank of Canada once again held firm to its commitment to keep rates at their current 0.25 percent until mid-2010.  While a strong loonie still represents some risk, it has remained slightly below the Bank’s assumption.

The Bank also heeded caution about the level of debt that consumers are taking on, reminding them to keep the long term in mind since rates will not stay low forever. Those who are taking out adjustable rate mortgages must particularly keep this in mind. As rates increase, their payment will as well.  The bank and the finance minister reminded buyers to ensure they are in a financial position to handle increases.

Source: The Financial Post

Exports Jump – Move to Trade Surplus

The Canadian economy heavily depends upon trade, particularly on exporting. Due to its close proximity, most of the exports find their way south of the border into the United States. With a hard-hit U.S. economy over the past year, demand from the United States for Canadian products dropped off. Given a better economic climate in the U.S. recently, last month’s demand was up and pushed Canada back up into positive trade surplus territory for the first time in four months.

Much of the economic activity over the past few months has come from domestic demand – Canadians are taking advantage of low interest rates and the banks that will make loans and buying Canadian products with it. So far, this has helped fuel the recovery. While it is too early to know if the increase in exports will become a trend, it is a positive sign. A sustained increase in exports would help take some of the pressure off domestic demand and add additional fuel to the fire in arriving at a truly sustainable recovery.

Source: The Financial Post

Job Postings on the Rise

Indicating that employment will likely be on the rebound over the coming months, the help-wanted index for November was up for the fourth consecutive month.

Most provinces, excluding only Newfoundland and Labrador, saw a rise in job postings. The Conference Board of Canada, the author of the index, stated that this suggests that labour markets across the country have possibly hit bottom.

November’s employment numbers overwhelmingly beat forecasts of 15,000, coming in at 79,000 new jobs. Most of those jobs were concentrated in the services sector. The rise in the help-wanted index could point to a continued trend of increasing employment throughout the country.

Source: Canwest News Service, The Conference Board of Canada

Timely Topics

Salary Freezes Expected to Thaw in 2010

According to a survey by Towers Perrin, half of the firms they interviewed froze salaries in 2009, but only 11 percent are expecting to in 2010. This is great news for your average consumer – they can now put the extra from the salary bump toward savings or spending on the many great opportunities with low interest rates, including a new home.

Senior executives, however, may need to wait a little longer as one in five are expected to continue to have their salaries frozen. It’s unclear yet if salaries for the highest earners are readjusting to a new norm or if this will be temporary.

Most salaries are expected to regain much of the ground they lost in 2009. Median salary increases are expected to be 2.5 percent.

Source: The Financial Post

Oh my gosh, I neglected to complete my posts of market updates over the past 2 weeks! I compiled the data into the usual charts, then got busy with Holidays, and only just today realized I had not done the actual posts. In the sake of expedience, I’m going to just present the charts, without any of my usual pithy commentary for those two weeks – I’ll insert the charts at the bottom of this post.

So, how has the market been so far in 2010? SLOOOOOOOOW might be one word for it! That’s okay though, because there’s still nothing much in the way of inventory, interest rates went up this past week, so everyone will get off that splintery fence soon enough!

Here’s the weekly Total Market Overview:

And the Annual Summary of Activity:

And, finally, the Absorption Rate:

Absorption Rate Chart December 25th, 2009

Absorption Rate Chart December 31st, 2009

Absorption Rate Graph December 25th, 2009

Absorption Rate Graph December 31st, 2009

Total Market Overview December 25th, 2009

Total Market Overview December 31st, 2009

Annual Summary of Weekly Activity December 25th, 2009

Annual Summary of Weekly Activity December 31st, 2009

The original posting of this story by Report On Business spurred me to add my commentary, is italics throughout.

Over-exuberant Christmas shoppers only have months to get control of their overspending before higher interest rates risk further complicating their lives, credit counselling experts warn.

With Canadians swimming in debt, forecasts of higher interest rates midway through 2010 could push more people over the edge by hampering their ability to pay off expenses.

“It’s a huge concern,” says Laurie Campbell, executive director of the non-profit counselling service Credit Canada.

Those most at risk are homeowners who must renegotiate their mortgages. Higher rates would increase monthly payments, leaving less to pay other debt.

I don’t read mainstream media consistently, because of the melodramatic way they report things. In Mississauga, with the average house value being in the $360,000 range and a 20% equity, people would have an 80% mortgage, or a mortgage of $288,000. If rates rise 1% all in one fell swoop, the payment would go up by $155 a month. While that is no small chunk of change, it is an easily-manageable amount. That’s less than the cost of buying lunch every working day; it’s less than many spend at Tim Horton’s in a month; and it’s far less than the average person spends unnecessarily on discretionary stuff. Oh, sorry, my readers, I forgot, logic doesn’t trump lousy reporting and scare tactics in the media. My bad.

Spending by Canadian households averaged $71,360 last year, 2 per cent more than in 2007, with shelter representing about 20 per cent of the load.

The Bank of Canada has repeatedly warned of late that record household debt is the biggest risk facing the country’s financial system. Bank Governor Mark Carney said that up to 10 per cent of households could face difficulties in meeting monthly payments when interest rates rise to normal levels.

However, an estimated 40 per cent of mortgage holders with high debt payments could increase their flexibility by suspending accelerated pay-downs on principal.

Um, yeah, okay, I guess the writer has never tried to do that! It’s one thing to increase your principal payments – they love to let you do that. But, in a completely absurd twist of logic, they make you re-apply for a mortgage if you want to lessen the principal payments. Yeah, makes sense to me – when you take away the banks interest income, by paying your mortgage off faster, they greet you with open arms; give them the opportunity to make more interest income and they make you jump through so many hoops. Once again, my bad for thinking logic has any part of all this. No wonder it’s easier to buy a $75,000 car that you could drive to LA & sell for $45,000 than it is to buy a house that ain’t goin’ anywhere!

Of course, presuming you used a great mortgage broker to get your mortgage, and he/she advised you not to write the loan at the higher principal payments, you’ll be fine with this and can just stop making the extra principal payment.

High interest rates have a major effect on a person’s cash flow, said Paul Salewski of Ottawa-based financial, credit and debt counselling agency Doyle Salewski. A doubling of mortgage rates to eight per cent would, for example, increase monthly payments by nearly $500 for homeowners with a $200,000 mortgage.

Please, don’t be so insulting! Talk about fear-mongering!! First of all, does a single breathing person actually believe that they’ll double rates overnight? Does anyone believe that there won’t be massive media attention paid in advance? Your great mortgage broker will be completely on top of things and advising you when to move your mortgage from a Variable Rate to Closed Rate. I’m equally sure that they will have had a chat with you when arranging your mortgage about what the payments would be at higher rates.

“All of a sudden they’re maybe have to increase their payments or who knows what they have to do in order to get by,” he said.

Since it’s too late to avoid the commercialization of Christmas, credit counsellors suggest people look at strategies for dealing with their spending spree as soon as the holidays wind up.

Recommendations include tackling high-interest credit card debt first — obtain a line of credit or consolidation loan if possible, stick to a spending budget and try to amass an emergency fund.

Yeah, that’s the ticket – arrange a line of credit, which usually means it’s going to be tied to prime, and increase your exposure. No, the answer is to start right now on eliminating all that discretionary spending.

Whatever you do, don’t rack up more credit card charges as you develop a plan of action to tackle debt.

Ms. Campbell said there’s no need to have more than one or two charge cards. Paring the number of cards over time will also limit the ability to make foolish decisions.

Despite increased restrictions, she expects that more Canadians will turn to bankruptcy to address their financial problems in 2010. Among them will be high-income earners who have begun to seek credit counselling in greater numbers.

“I think it’s really important for people to understand not to panic,” Ms. Campbell said, adding that help from counsellors is available.

Mark says a huge weight has been lifted off his shoulders since he sought such help to address $10,000 of debt he had amassed following his divorce several years ago.

“I just didn’t know how to quite handle my new freedom,” he said in an interview.

His credit woes caused him mental anxiety, depression and loss of sleep.

The 56-year-old caretaker said his problems worsened when he turned to pay-day loans to accommodate his increased spending on cigarettes, alcohol and general living expenses.

Every two weeks he would pay $25 interest for each $100 borrowed at a store-front operation in Toronto.

“You get to a point where you have to borrow again to get yourself back to where you were,” said Mark, who didn’t want to be identified.

Consolidation of his debt and regular monthly payments should allow him to resolve his financial problems and re-establish his credit within two years.

“As long as I keep a handle on it, it’s OK.”

Sorry, I know that more and more people are facing financial difficulty these days, and a lot of it is brought on by their emotional approach to things. When I was active as a mortgage lender, I was amazed at how many people would have $100,000 in high-interest debt, and $200,000 in equity in their house. They wouldn’t dream of re-financing their house at 7% to pay off their 20% debt, because of the emotional attachment to owning their house free-&-clear. That’s plain crazy!

IF you have a VRM, you need to start now paying attention to all the talk about where interest rates are going. You need to hook up with a mortgage broker, NOT talk to your bank about things, and you need to consider locking in your mortgage NOW.

Sure, I’m pretty conservative when it comes to this, and haven’t taken the ride on the VRM-train.

If you need contact info for a great mortgage broker, just ask.